Model For Minimum And Maximum Temperature Of The Upper East Region Of Ghana
Volume 4 - Issue 1, January 2020 Edition
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Author(s)
Yawo Mamoua Kobara, Salifu Katara, Abdul-Rahaman Issahaku
Keywords
Climate; Temperature; Upper East Region; Auto Regression; Harmattan
Abstract
This paper analyzes and use a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model to jointly forecast minimum and maximum temperature values. The study was carried out using data collected in the Upper East Region of Ghana. It examines the best trend of the temperature data and it illustrates how the VAR (p) model can be fitted to the data based on the Lag selection for the model using the AIC, SIQ and BIC. Particular attention was given to the unit root test of stationary, the Johansen test of co-integration and the Granger causality test to investigate the bilateral causality of the data. Interest is paid to the properties of VAR model, to the estimation of the parameters of the model and to the determination of the number of co-integration vectors. The study was carried on a monthly data from January 1954 to December 2014 and finally the study permits the forecast of three years ahead. The results conclude that the relationship between the minimum and maximum temperature is a bilateral causality since both are co-integrated and granger cause.
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